Oscar Predictions

Host: Seth MacFarlane

I know the Oscars are often seen as out-of-date and predictable by many cinema fans. Nevertheless, they're the best we've got. This years bash will be hosted by Family Guy and Ted funny man Seth MacFarlane - a bold move considering his provocative and controversial style of humour. The red carpet parade of stars starts tonight at 11:30 GMT (on Sky Movies), with the actual ceremony running from 1:30am till 4am. Yes, on a bloody Sunday night. Anyway, here are my predictions of what/who will win, should win and the outsider in each category. No matter how redundant the Oscars have become, getting angry when your favourite doesn't win never gets old.

Best Picture

Ben Affleck's Argo

What will win: Argo - the decision to snub Affleck for best director has come back to bite the Academy, with Argo scooping the Golden Globes, SAGs, DGAs, PGAs and BAFTA Awards. The overrated film, in my opinion, is now the frontrunner.

What I want to win: Silver Linings Playbook

Outsider: Lincoln

Best Actor

Who will win: Daniel Day-Lewis (Lincoln) - disappearing into another another role as the peerless Abraham Lincoln; the equally peerless Day-Lewis is an absolute cert.

Who I want to win: Daniel Day-Lewis (Lincoln)

(Massive) Outsider: Joaquin Phoenix (The Master)

Best Actress

Jennifer Lawrence in SLP

Who will win: Jennifer Lawrence (Silver Linings Playbook) - this is one of the most open categories this year. Lawrence was the early favourite, but buzz has built up for both Zero Dark Thirty's Jessica Chastain and oldest ever nominee Emmanuelle Riva for Amour. 

Who I want to win: Jennifer Lawrence (Silver Linings Playbook)

Outsider: Jessica Chastain/Emmanuelle Riva

Best Director

Who will win: Steven Spielberg (Lincoln) - the film is classic Oscar bait, even if it does miss out on best film. As a huge fan of David O Russell, I will be rooting for the maestro (in vain). Criminal overlooks for Katheryn Bigelow, Quentin Tarantino and Ben Affleck in this category.

Who I want to win: David O Russell (Silver Linings Playbook)

Outsider: Ang Lee (Life of Pi)

Best Supporting Actor

Christoph Waltz in Django Unchained

Who will win: Tommy Lee Jones (Lincoln) - this is the most difficult to predict. All the nominees, bar Alan Arkin (Argo), gave great performances. 

Who I want to win: Christoph Waltz (Django Unchained)

Outsider: Robert De Niro (Silver Linings Playbook)

Best Supporting Actress

Who will win: Anne Hathaway (Les Miserables) - this is absolutely nailed on. It's the least the Oscars can do after leaving her stranded on stage with (what seemed like a very high) co-host James Franco in 2011.

Who I want to win: Anne Hathaway (Les Miserables)

Outsider: Amy Adams (The Master)

Best Original Screenplay

Quentin Tarantino

Who will win: Quentin Tarantino (Django Unchained) - this is between Quentin, Zero Dark Thirty's Mark Boal (who won for Hurt Locker) and Michael Haneke for Amour. No contest though, as the 'rambunctious' Tarantino will get his revenge for not beating Boal with his Inglorious Basterds script in 2010. 

Who I want to win: Quentin Tarantino (Django Unchained)

Outsider: Michael Haneke (Amour)

Best Adapted Screenplay

Who will win: Chris Terrio (Argo) - a real three-horse race between Argo, Silver Linings Playbook and Lincoln on this one. This is the one I will throw the most abuse at the TV for when David O Russell doesn't win. PLEASE GIVE IT TO HIM. Nope, didn't think so.

Who I want to win: David O Russell (Silver Linings Playbook)

Outsider: David Kushner (Lincoln)

As for the other big categories, Amour will obviously win for Best Foreign Film and I fancy Wreck-It Ralph for Best Animated Feature over Pixar's Brave. 

Reviews

House of Cards: 'The Anti-West Wing'

Cast: Kevin Spacey, Robin Wright, Kate Mara, Corey Stoll, Michael Kelly, Kristen Connolly

Developed by: Beau Willimon

Genre: Drama

My Rating: 8/10

Smart, classy, challenging and heavily advertised - the first half of the 26-part series House of Cards is a signal of intent from streaming video purveyor Netflix. With the introduction of internet-ready smart TVs and declining cable viewing figures, TV executives will be quaking in their boots.

The first 'Netflix Original' series - an adaptation of a BBC mini-series of the same name - centres around Francis "Frank" Underwood, a Democrat House Majority Whip who vows to gain retribution after being betrayed by his colleagues. Apart from decent minor roles in Margin Call and Moon, Kevin Spacey has not been ambitious in his selection of roles in the last decade - until now. He is an absolute colossus here as the cynical, conniving statesman, having had preparation for the role on the stage as Richard III. It is a classic screenwriting cliché to invest your audience in a character immediately by having them save an animal, so much so that a famous book on the craft is called 'Save the Cat!'. Writer Beau Willimon, channeling his Ides of March approach, turns this on its head in the opening scene to give you an instant, disturbing insight into the ruthless Underwood mind.

You may have also seen the frequent TV spots for House of Cards, featuring Spacey's wicked quips straight into the camera. These almost Shakespearean asides are surprisingly effective, ranging from straight explanation of Underwood's approach, to dark-humoured punch-lines or simply revealing expressions. This abrasive style is the antithesis to The West Wing. House of Cards explores the vindictive power-plays that success in politics necessitates, compared to Aaron Sorkin's back-and-forth dialogue and celebration of American idealism. 

"I love that woman. I love her more than sharks love blood" - Frank (aside)

Much of the plot also revolves around Frank's wife Claire, played masterfully by Robin Wright (right). Her desire to forward her environmental organisation conflicts with Frank's plans, leading to late night exchanges between the couple as they smoke on their windowsill. These strategic encounters provide the series with a sense of foreboding clarity, counterpointing the commotion of Capitol Hill. Kate Mara - sister of Fincher-favourite Rooney -  also stars as a fledgling reporter, who looks to use Frank to skip a few rungs on the journalist ladder. 

Aside from the writing, which is occasionally trite, these are exceptionally well made pieces of television. David Fincher, who had helped develop the show from the beginning, brings enormous gravitas as executive producer and director of the first two episodes. Writers, directors and producers were given extraordinary freedom by Netflix in production, resulting in not only a fantastic product but surely the attraction of other immensely talented people like Fincher and Spacey in the future.

All of House of Cards' characters are thoroughly unlikable. You'd think this would be a problem but if you hate sanctimonious, deceptive politicians like I do, you'll savour the experience. Maybe you'll even get caught up in the game yourself. There are no winners in House of Cards, just people who lose less. 

The Netflix Factor

Netflix clearly doesn't underestimate their customers. To burst into the realm of original programming with such an intelligent, at times demanding, but ultimately rewarding series is very ambitious. If this is a standard they build upon, with the hugely anticipated new season of Arrested Development arriving in May, this really could revolutionise consumption of media for good. 

As for the format, releasing all thirteen episodes at once was clearly meant to offer an alternative to the usual weekly viewing experience. This allows the viewer to watch the episodes as quickly or slowly as they like, at their convenience to pause, rewind and rewatch. Whenever, wherever. 

I know, I know. I'm sounding like I work for Netflix now. But there are some downsides: does binge-watching diminish the power of individual episodes? And it presents the problem of spoilers: if they are all released simultaneously, how are people supposed to talk about the show when everyone is at different points in the series? This becomes a serious problem on twitter, with people seemingly posting their musings without any consideration. Funnily enough, director Darren Aronofsky was the culprit in spoiling one part of the show for me. My dissertation will not be so kind to you now, sir.